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Australian Horse Racing

 



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We all want to be competitive in everything we do. And no more so that with punting on horse racing.

Success in punting on horses, in fact most things reduces down to an information war - the people with the best information make the smart moves.

Books have been and still are the best source of general information, and this applies at least as much in the art of racehorse selection and staking as in any other field.

Author Paul Segar has produced textbooks which cover all aspects of punting. The books alone stand as a complete reference but also provide 'food for thought'. You can develop / improve your own ideas as well as learn some new techniques.

Each book is written in plain English with plenty of practical examples in each chapter. Browse the contents of each book or email for further information, if required.


Improve your punting knowledge today - buy one or all of these books.

Read the books but want more? It's time to do a course.

The Pureform Introduction Course uses a computer program to show you how and when to bet and how to do it successfully. Check out the details

 

The Benchmark Handipper Course continues from the Introduction Course and gives you further weapons to apply when making quality value selections. More...

 

 

Buy all three books now:

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Untitled Document

Target Betting Part 2...

Navigation

1. Introduction

2. Target Betting

3. Markets

4. Savers

5. Overs

6. The Usual Punter

7. Unders

8. Where to now?

 

3. Markets

The next level up is to calculate prices for each runner according to your opinion. Exactly how this is done is not considered here but after some discussion, consideration and thought the following market was produced:

Horse Price Percent Available Odds Percent
A $3 33% $5 20%
B $5 20% $2.5 40%
C $7 14% $4 25%
D $12 8% $16 6%
E $15 7% $7 14%
  Totals: 82%   105%

 

So far so good, we have a market, some prices and some percentages. So let’s do some betting. The new market totals to 82% compared to the available percent of 105%. The calculated market should always be less percent than the available market.

Betting each horse to collect $100 using your odds for pricing and using the available odds for the bets produces the following profit or loss if each horse wins the race:

 

Horse Bet Collect Profit
A $33 $165 $84
B $20 50 -$31
C $14 $56 -$25
D $8 $128 $47
E $7 $49 -$32
Total: $81    

 

So horse A produces a nice profit if it wins ($84 profit) while Horse E winning gives the worst result (-$32).

Note this is betting to collect $100. Some punters like to bet to win an amount instead of betting to collect. Subtract 1 from the price and then divide into 100 to get the amount to bet when trying to win $100 as opposed to collect $100. Betting to collect $100 is a more conservative approach.

Clearly  B, C and E produce losing results with horses A and D being profitable. So the question now is what to do with this market? No one knows what the result is going to be otherwise everyone would bet on the winner!

So there are two solid options: either bet the good bets and then wager horses B, C and E as a saver bet or simply bet the horses that will make a profit (A and D). Let’s consider the two options.

 

4. Saver

The idea of a saver bet is simply to return the stake or perhaps make a small profit on a bet considered to be of lesser quality. In the case of horse B the quality of the bet is reduced simply based on the price and it no way reflects on the real chance of the horse (something that no one really knows).

The problem with the saver bet is if more than one horse is saved on the amount bet on the saver(s) also needs to be recovered.
So taking horses A and D for the win and saving on the favorite gives the following table:

 

Horse Odds Available Wager Return Profit
A $3 $5 $33 $165 $97
B $5 $2.5 $27 $67.5 -$0.5
D $12 $16 $8 $128 $60
    Total: $68    

 

Saving on Horse B costs an extra $27 and if that horse wins the result will return the stake (minus 50 cents). In this case the bet only returned the stake for a more or less break even result.

Almost half the total outlay on the race was the saver bet on the favourite. There is little point as you can probably see from this example saving on the favourite especially if you have some faith in your market.  Additionally saving on the other two runners (horses C and E) complicates the whole problem even further and is not worth considering at this time.

Saving on a single longer priced lesser chance is a reasonable option.

Part 3 Overs...