Contents

Introduction

The System at Work – NATURE STRIP, FIDELIA and CRAFTY CRUISER

Rating Based Templates

Ratings comparing Benchmark and Class 1 to 6 Events

Race Class Movements – Further Discussion

Maidens

The Racing Challenge

 

 

Maiden races are for horses yet to win a race – a horse can be beaten a nose or the length of the straight but until it wins that first race it is classed as a maiden galloper.

There are no benchmark ratings for maidens which from a punting viewpoint is one system weakness.

In New Zealand, handicappers allocate a rating of 45 to first starters and a rating of 47 for those first starters with a trial win.

This is a reasonable starting point for all first starters with clearly some horses making massive improvements.

Western Australia has been rating maiden events for some time now with ratings around 55 for most races (which is probably a bit high).

Different Maidens

There is only one type of maiden in horse racing - the horse has not won a race.

There are however a number of different formats and knowing the difference, can, well make a difference:

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• Age restricted
• Set weights according to age and/or gender
• Handicapping based on recent performances and other factors

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1. A race might be age restricted: a 3 year-old maiden, or additionally gender: a 3 year-old fillies maiden.

2. Set weights are allocated according to age. All 5 year-olds will carry the same weight; allowances apply to gender.

3. The same race as Number 2 can be handicapped with many runners carrying different weights.

"Class" movements can enhance a runner's chances even though the race is still restricted to non-winners.

A horse running a place in a handicap race may be substantially better/worse handicapped in a set weight maiden event.

Maiden events, as touted by the pundits, can vary from almost group 1 level all the way down to the weakest of weak with half the day’s races at many provincial and country venues being maiden races.

In modern racing, some midweek city racing often boast three or four maiden events of a high standard.

Gone are the days of the trainer setting their horse for a quick maiden “kill” in a city maiden as often these events are very strong in both depth and number.

Provincial and country maidens are usually weaker but at times produce some very strong performances.

So maiden races at times are very difficult to rate and it is the various quality of the events which usually determines the subsequent winner.

In most maidens races there are at least four previous different events or form lines making up the previous form with some runners having raced against each other.

For these four (more or less) events, the key is to decide which race is the strongest and then determine the best runs from that strongest race. One race may have 3 or 4 runners previously competing against each other in the upcoming race and from another race there may be another 1 or 2 runners previously raced together. Usually one of these events will be superior and runners from the superior race will finish closer to the winner.

Maidens are often won by first starters in which case no amount of form study will help (trial information can help but not all first starters run in trials).

First start maiden winners are usually found in weaker maiden events. It is rare to have a first start maiden winner in a strong maiden event. Why run a strong first start winning chance in a competitive maiden when a weaker event is just as good?

Many horses find winning their first race a major challenge and may take 20 or more starts before success – some are quickly retired.

Many potential maiden winners are hard to train and maintaining fitness is often difficult. This is one reason why many maiden winners succeed again quite quickly even though it may have taken 20 runs for that first success. The trainer has found the secret to the horse’s fitness and while remaining fit can be placed appropriately a number of times.

The same horse may return for its next preparation and never regain enough fitness to win at a higher level.

For some horses winning a maiden was a major challenge and then winning that next race is as hard or harder than winning the first race.

The first start maiden winner entered for a class one event is a classic example of a trainer knowing her charges limitations. Why go for a class one event with a first start maiden winner?

Clearly the horse has limited ability and will most likely spend its racing days in the lower end of the ratings section and there is nothing wrong with this at all.

The beauty of maiden races is that in many cases, more than half of the runners have very limited chances of winning. Many maiden horses are simply too slow to be competitive.

This simplifies form study for maiden races compared to other races full of strong winning form.

 

 

 

 

 

Just to show some possible variations consider the following race, a Benchmark 64 event for 3yo’s and older:

3yo+ BM 64
Form	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Rating	Details
1	Another Winner	58	B Wesson	62	4yo G
1	Kingston Amode	58	J White	62	6yo G
1	Ima Tofer	56.5	A Prentice (a 1.5)	62	5yo G
1	Work In Progress	56.5	A Smith	62	3yo G
1	Jamaican Gambler	55	B Prentice (a 3)	62	4yo G
1	Oneforthemoney	54.5	R Blue	62	3yo F
1	Honor The Day	52	C Prentice (a 4)	62	4yo M

This is a theoretical race which consist of 7 last start maiden winners which are all entered into this Benchmark 64 event and so consist of 62 rated horses set to carry 58 kg and with no higher rated runners accepting.

The minimum topweight is set at 58 kg.

Not a race that you will see that often but some races may have four or five first start maiden winners.

Each horse in this race has only had one race start.

So all the winners are rated the same benchmark rating but as everyone knows, there are winners and there are winners.

Some horses win in a canter, others flogged to the line, some are unlucky and just surge nearing the finish others get the gun run and stagger over the wire. And yet, everyone one of these performers is rated at 62.

Of those winners, the horse that canters in often fails next run, the horse that leads tails off and the run on horse may instead be the front runner. Only one race starts tells little about the actual horse, except that it has ability having won a race.

A quick look at the adjusted weights (after apprentice claims) sees a spread of some 6 kg.

How can that be when they are all rated at 62?

Simply some of the horses are female and some are young and additionally ridden by inexperienced jockeys.

At the time of writing, 3yo’s were receiving a 1.5 kg weight allowance with female runners receiving a 2 kg allowance. Combine this with an apprentice claim and suddenly the weights carried for identical 62 rated horses is far from equivalent.

Assuming C Prentice (brother A Prentice and sister B Prentice all in the same race) can ride with some gusto then Honor The Day becomes some sort of weight special; or is she? Is the trainer putting the apprentice on because it has no chance or does it have so much on the field that it’s an easy victory for the beginner apprentice?

Let’s add a further complication: The barrier draw:

3yo+ BM 64
Form	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Barrier	Rating	Details
1	Another Winner	58	B Wesson	3	62	4yo G
1	Kingston Amode	58	J White	6	62	6yo G
1	Ima Tofer	56.5	A Prentice (a 1.5)	5	62	5yo G
1	Work In Progress	56.5	A Smith	7	62	3yo G
1	Jamaican Gambler	55	B Prentice (a 3)	2	62	4yo G
1	Oneforthemoney	54.5	R Blue	4	62	3yo F
1	Honor The Day	52	C Prentice (a 4)	1	62	4yo M

Some brief general comments about the runners in this race.

Another Winner came from last to win by half a length in a small field.

Kingston Amode raced handy outside the leader and was too strong.

Ima Tofer and Work In Progress both led throughout holding on well to just win while the bottom 3 had gun runs mid-race off the pace finishing on to win well by half a length.

In fact the winning margin in all seven events was half a length with each field consisting of only 7 runners running the same overall and sectional times.

The final two parts of the puzzle are trip handicapping and race characteristics.

Trip handicapping, a term coined by Andrew Beyer and also known as speed mapping, is getting some idea of where each horse will be in the run and how the horse runs its race, speed map is the typical term used.

This leads into the likely race characteristics. No pace in the race produces disadvantaged backmarkers and so on.

Most punters like to follow trainer/jockey combinations, not possible in this example.

So as can be seen from this contrived example, all horses 62 rated with almost identical form can produce a very interesting event with a spread of weight and chances.

Now given the information, which horse is best weighted, best suited and most likely to win? And, what are your chances of picking the winner?

Night meetings run at Moonee Valley often produce evenly matched events with the chances of selecting the winner around the 6-1 level.

So what to do in this type of event?

In most cases, lay the favorite, that is bet it to lose as it has the same chance of winning but shorter odds.

Although the horses all start the event with the same ratings and in the barrier stalls together, the final result will span far more than 3 or 4 lengths and this is the reason why there is still horse racing.

As they say, nothing in racing is certain, except there will always be another race.

This 3yo+ BM 64 race is due to be run in a week or two a few years ago now. Make a selection and check the race result.

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Here's the betting:

Horse	Bookmaker Odds
Work In Progress	$3.50
Kingston Amode	$5
Ima Tofer	$6
Honor The Day	$6
Oneforthemoney	$8
Jamaican Gambler	$10
Another Winner	$10

Market 114%

Which one do you want to bet on?

Make your decision first and then click the result...

 

The Result